San Bernardino Sun on Laning and Matthews' Chances
The San Bernardino Sun (owned by William Dean Singleton's Media News Group) has weighed in on the chances of Cynthia Matthews and Ed Laning defeating Joe Baca and David Dreier, respectively. From the article:
Races rarely won by rookies
Districts, donors favor incumbents
By BEN SCHNAYERSON, Staff Writer
It's become almost impossible to unseat an incumbent state or federal lawmaker....
[T]he parties and big donors are loath to give money to challengers, because the registration numbers are stacked. The incumbents, on the other hand, rake in the cash....
Republicans Marge Mendoza-Ware of Bloomington and Ed Laning of Oak Hills spoke recently at a rally against Rep. Joe Baca, D-Rialto, in Ontario. The event was put on by the John and Ken Show on KFI-AM (640), where the conservative talk-radio hosts, the two Republican challengers and more than 1,000 loyal listeners railed against Baca, saying he is too lenient on illegal immigration.
Laning is running against Baca and Mendoza-Ware is running against Baca's son, Joe Baca Jr. of Rialto, in the 62nd Assembly District.
Laning believes the illegal immigration issue buoys his chances to take the Inland Empire congressional seat Baca has held for about five years.
"A lot of times politics isn't logical,' said Laning. "I think we are looking at a situation where the issue is going to drive the election rather than the numbers.'
But Baca, who argues he is just trying to eliminate racial profiling, said he isn't worried about Laning or the radio hosts.
And he has little reason to worry.
According to last week's registration numbers, Baca's district was about 50percent Democrat and 32percent Republican. His district, the 43rd, includes Colton, Muscoy, Bloomington, San Bernardino, Rialto, Fontana and Ontario.
Baca also had $113,648 on hand as of Sept. 30, according to the Federal Election Commission. Laning had $15,410.
Similar disparities are causing lopsided races all around the county....
Rep. David Dreier, R-Glendora, has been scrutinized repeatedly by the John and Ken Show for his stances on illegal immigration. The radio men held an event attacking Drier as they did for Baca.
But Dreier's district, which covers western San Bernardino County and eastern Los Angeles County, is 52 percent registered Republican, compared with 26 percent registered Democrat. And Dreier had $2,641,394 in his campaign fund as of Sept. 30.
His opponent, Democrat Cynthia Matthews of La Verne, had $8,818....
Most of the challengers are well aware of the odds against them. But they say they can still win....
[OE UPDATE 11/1/2004]
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