Bush and Kerry, Swingers
In the 2004 presidential election, much attention will be given to the swing states. I do not live in a swing state (California will go for Kerry), so instead of seeing endless Bush and Kerry attack ads, I will see endless Bush and Kerry "give us your money to fight in the swing states" appeals.

But where are the swing states? David Plotz of Slate publishes this list:

Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Delaware
Florida
Iowa
Louisiana
Maine Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Wikipedia lists several different definitions.

In a recent article, the Washington Post defined swing states as those that were decided by less than 3 percentage points in the 2000 presidential election. Using those criteria, the swing states for 2004 are Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida.

The following list appeared later in the article:

Arizona: 10 Electoral votes
Arkansas: 6 Electoral votes
Delaware: 3 Electoral votes
Florida: 27 Electoral votes
Iowa: 7 Electoral votes
Louisiana: 9 Electoral votes
Maine: 4 Electoral votes
Michigan: 17 Electoral votes
Minnesota: 10 Electoral votes
Missouri: 11 Electoral votes
Nevada: 5 Electoral votes
New Hampshire: 4 Electoral votes
New Mexico: 5 Electoral votes
Ohio: 20 Electoral votes
Oregon: 7 Electoral votes
Pennsylvania: 21 Electoral votes
Washington: 11 Electoral votes
West Virginia: 5 Electoral votes
Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes

And still another list appeared:

A survey conducted by a firm for the Bush campaign also gave a figure of 19 states, but with slightly different results. It cited these states as "the 19 battleground states in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have focused their paid media efforts to this point". The states were:

Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Louisiana
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Pst: Bush and Kerry are not going to pour all of their money into New Hampshire. The state that is heavily influential one year before the election becomes an afterthought by the time of the election.

Here's an edited list of possible swing states, focusing on those with 15 or more electoral votees:

Florida: 27 Electoral votes
Michigan: 17 Electoral votes
Ohio: 20 Electoral votes
Pennsylvania: 21 Electoral votes

Notice that three of these four states (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania) border each other. At least Bush, Cheney, Kerry, and Edwards won't have to travel too far from their homes in the Washington, DC area to campaign in those states.

I like to keep things simple, so maybe I should ignore the doings in Oregon and just concentrate on Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Lotsa votes, geographically adjacent. What more could one ask for?

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