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Click for Ontario, California Forecast

Tuesday, February 10, 2004

Howard Dean is Leading in California!
Michael Hanscom has stated that Howard Dean is in second place in the Democratic primaries:

As long as Dean is in one of the top three spots (and he's currently in second, though few media reports are likely to point that out), I think he should stick it out

At first glance, this flies in the face of the conventional wisdom. Everybody knows that Dean is losing. Everybody knows that Kerry is winning most everything, with Edwards and General Wesley "General" Clark winning here and there, and Dean isn't winning anything.

Only one problem - the news isn't focusing on the real race for the nomination. They're focusing on vote counts, not delegates, with the unspoken implication that whoever gets the most votes gets all the delegates in a particular primary or caucus.

When you look at the delegate count, the story is somewhat different. As of today, here are the delegate counts for the various candidates:

  • Kerry: 482

  • Dean: 181

  • Edwards: 117

  • Clark: 84

  • Sharpton: 12

  • Kucinich: 2

  • Things get more interesting when you look at things on a primary by primary basis. Did you know that Howard Dean is currently leading the delegate count in California? Yes, I know the primary won't happen until March, but some of the delegates are already pledged:

  • Kerry: 4

  • Dean: 15

  • Edwards: 1

  • Clark: 1

  • Sharpton: 0

  • Kucinich: 1

  • Note that 50% of Kucinich's delegates come from California. The other 50% come from Ohio, which won't have its primary until March either.

    So, in the only count that really matters, Dean is leading California. Unfortunately for Dean, perception is reality.

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